What are the odds of getting an expensive drop from a case in CS2?

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In the world of CS2 (Counter-Strike 2), there is a special system of cases that players can open to obtain various weapon skins. These skins can range in price from a few cents to staggering amounts—tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars. In this article, we'll take an in-depth look at the different types of CS2 cases, the odds of getting various rare skins, and how the drop system works.

How the Item Drop System Works in CS2

What Are Cases in CS2?

Cases in CS2 are containers of various types that can contain a wide range of items: weapon skins, graffiti, stickers, music kits, collectible pins, and more. When a case is opened, one item of a specific rarity is dropped, and the chances of obtaining that item depend on its category.

A standard CS2 case contains the following levels of skin rarity: Mil-Spec (common), Restricted, Classified, and Covert. There is also an "Extraordinary Rare" category that includes knives and gloves, which are highly valuable. For example, even the cheapest items in this category can be worth over $100, emphasizing their value among players.

What Are the Odds of Getting Rare Items?

The odds of getting rare CS2 skins from cases were disclosed by Valve in 2017. This information became public due to CS2's launch in the Chinese market, where case openings are considered a form of gambling and require mandatory disclosure of winning odds. According to this information, each subsequent rarity level is five times less likely to drop than the previous one.

The odds of getting the rarest items, such as knives or gloves, are approximately 0.26%, or about one item in every 385 cases opened. It is important to understand that getting a rare item is not guaranteed, even after a large number of attempts: you might get a knife on your first try, on your thousandth, or not at all.

For specific items from a case, the probability is evenly distributed among all items of the same rarity level. For example, if there are two Covert skins in a case, the chance of each dropping is 0.32%, which is explained by the equal distribution of the overall chance (0.64%) between them.

What Is StatTrak, and What Are the Odds of Getting It?

In addition to regular skins, players can get weapons with a kill counter—StatTrak. This counter displays the number of kills made with the skin, which makes it more valuable. The probability of getting a StatTrak skin version is about 10% of the total chance for a given rarity. For example, the odds of obtaining a Mil-Spec StatTrak skin are around 8%, while for an "Extraordinary Rare" item, it's 0.26%.

Souvenir Packages and Their Features

Souvenir packages differ from standard cases by including two new rarity levels: Consumer Grade and Industrial Grade. Covert skins, such as knives and gloves, are not present here, which slightly simplifies the odds of getting a rare drop. Souvenir skins always have four gold stickers and may sell for more than their regular counterparts. However, their value depends on the rarity of the skin itself, the stickers, and its condition (float).

Trade-Up Contracts and Their Odds

Trade-up contracts allow players to exchange 10 skins of the same quality for a skin of the next rarity level. Each slot has an equal probability (10%), which makes the process predictable but does not guarantee obtaining a specific CS2 skin. Contracts do not work with souvenir items.

How Do Sticker Capsules Work?

Sticker capsules contain stickers of various rarities: from common to gold or holographic. The probability of getting a sticker also decreases fivefold with each new rarity. The remaining percentages are redistributed to the rarest item in the capsule, affecting the overall odds of obtaining each type of sticker.

All Graffiti on Maps in CS2 and Their History

Conclusion: Odds and Luck

Getting a rare drop in CS2, whether it's a knife or gloves, is quite challenging. The odds of around a quarter of a percent are not very encouraging, and it's often simpler to buy the desired item directly rather than rely on luck. However, there are always those who get a rare drop on their first case, and those who open thousands of cases with little success. There will always be an element of randomness and chance in this process.

I hope this information helped you better understand how the drop system in CS2 works and what the odds of getting rare items are. Good luck in the game, and may fortune be on your side!